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Tariff ‘stick’ to be followed by fiscal ‘carrot’?Markets have been fluctuating, initially with some positivity due to Trump’s planned phased and toned down tariff “Liberation Day” announcement. However, Trump’s unexpected permanent 25% tariffs on autos and threats of further tariffs swiftly reversed...

Bracing for tariff “Liberation Day” Capital markets were calmer last week. We said before that US investor sentiment had swung too far and could bounce back – and so it proved. This was helped by the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady...

Just another growth scare, or more?The stock market sell-off has resumed and US equities are officially in correction (-10%). US inflation was lower than expected, which usually pushes down bond yields, but the opposite happened – demonstrating that capital is flowing out...

The return of regional divergence US stocks fell once again last week, while European and Chinese shares did well. The background to this was a spike in European bond yields and more political uncertainty from the Trump administration. European stocks jumped on...

Honeymoon ends early No meaningful recovery for US stocks last week – but a slight warming for European shares. Encouragingly, Keir Starmer’s charm offensive resulted in President Trump saying “tariffs wouldn’t be necessary” for the UK – but Emmanuel Macron’s earlier experience...