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Improving mood versus slowing growth Capital markets bounced last week, supposedly because of Trump backing down on Chinese tariffs and Federal Reserve independence. We should be careful about these rationalisations. Greater liquidity led to a better mood in stocks and bonds, and...

Volatility drops but uncertainty remains Markets were calmer last week but there was no strong rebound. Falling government bond yields were welcome, after the previous week’s spike in US treasury yields. It now looks like markets once again see tariffs primarily as...

Ceasefire, not truce, in global trade war Last week had eye-watering ups and downs. US bond yields spiked, prompting Donald Trump to pause his “reciprocal” tariffs for 90 days on all countries except China, which faces a whopping 145% – although somewhat...

Trump’s Liberation Day turns into market routDonald Trump’s tariffs upset markets unprepared for their magnitude. The shockingly high “reciprocal” tariffs aren’t a response to “Tariffs charged to the U.S.A” as claimed, but a calculation based on regional trade deficits. This widely panned...