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More and more loose ends As we formulate our 2025 market outlook, the medium-term scenario looks increasingly littered with new variables. Cracks are appearing in the ‘Trump trade’ for US stocks. Investors hoped Trump II would pick a consistent, business-friendly cabinet, but...

Reading Trump’s tea leaves Stocks were up and down last week. Investors bought into Donald Trump’s tax cut and deregulation agenda, then soured on Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell’s suggestion that interest rate cuts might be gradual. It was hoped that Trump...

Known winner, unknown outcomes We expect some risks but potentially higher rewards for US assets under a second Trump term. Markets are clearly excited, but some of the equity rally was about pent-up demand – as investors had de-risked ahead of an...

US, not UK, battening down the hatches The budget dominated headlines, but global investors were again preoccupied with US politics. We said that volatility could spike amid tense markers, and that’s exactly what happened. It could continue until the US election outcome...