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US, not UK, battening down the hatches The budget dominated headlines, but global investors were again preoccupied with US politics. We said that volatility could spike amid tense markers, and that’s exactly what happened. It could continue until the US election outcome...

Markets in brace position Markets are bracing for some big upcoming events: the UK autumn budget, and a knife-edge US presidential election. Trading volumes could fall as a result, causing volatility, but that shouldn’t detract from the positive long-term outlook. The Chancellor,...

Buy the rumour, sell the fact Despite competing market narratives, stock markets were generally stable last week. China was the only exception; it managed to fit a boom-bust cycle into the space of a few days. There are plenty of uncertainties, but...

Why are markets so calm? Middle Eastern tensions dominated the headlines, but markets were surprisingly muted. Oil prices and the dollar gained, but risk assets remained strong. Markets clearly think pro-growth signals, like US employment and Chinese consumer spending, are more important....

Global growth tailwinds For once, markets were preoccupied with non-US news last week – after China’s double shot of economic stimulus boosted Chinese (and European) stocks. Our verdict is that they will be impactful – just not quite the ‘bazooka’ levels of...

Central bank pivot 2.0 The US Federal Reserve’s 50 basis point interest rate cut was last week’s biggest story, and markets took it well. It was portrayed as a surprisingly large cut, but markets had already priced in a high chance of...

Market fears fading Global stocks recovered well last week, in a sign that the early September jitters are fading, just as the August ones did. Not because the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates again – given president Lagarde warned that...

Nervous markets ahead of second pivotCapital markets started September nervously, but our generally positive long-term view remains unchanged. China’s weakness continues to weigh on global growth: its corporate profit outlook worsened, as did demand for iron and steel. Beijing’s main support lever...

Balancing acts US stocks were weighed by tech last week, but the UK and Europe were reasonable. Britons suspect a capital gains tax (CGT) hike in autumn – which is keeping advisers busy but hasn’t had any effect on UK stocks, and...

Late summer heatwave Global stocks have turned things around from the early August sell-off. Up until the end of last week, the gains of the recovery were strong and remarkably stable. Last week’s main capital markets event was Federal Reserve chair Jerome...

Tornado rather than hurricane The market storm looked like it would become a hurricane in early August, but it ended as fast as whirlwind: stocks climbed last week without hesitation. Positivity is good, but a little unnerving. Our medium-term outlook is bright,...

Market correction turns into pothole Last week started with some of the worst stock market losses in nearly two years – prompted by recession fears and Japanese liquidity problems – but ended with most of those losses recovered. Volatility spiked across most...

Central bank week Another nervy week for investors: a slew of interest rate decisions, weak US employment data and disappointing Q2 earnings reports from US tech firms (including nasty results from Intel, which laid off 15,000 employees. On the central bank front,...

Don’t fear the rebalance The rough patch for global stocks continues – yet again concentrated in the frothy US mega-caps. Smaller caps continue to be a bright spot, but in aggregate these gains are being outweighed by large-cap losses. The “Magnificent 7”...

Shock, rotation, growth? An astounding week, that started with an attempted assassination of Donald Trump, ended with the largest global IT outage in history. As a result, markets now assume Trump will be president – and have priced in the tax cut...

Lower inflation, less profits? Global stocks fell into the latter part of the week – thanks to a sell-off for US mega-caps. Smaller caps and other regions outperformed, in a reversal of the year’s trend so far. UK stocks did well, with...

New government, same economy The election results were emphatic but full of contradictions. Labour achieved one of the largest majorities ever with the lowest winning vote share, and it did so by promising change while emphasising continuity. The contradiction most relevant to...

Politics, where policy takes a back seatLast Friday marked the end of the second quarter, culminating in the day after the first 2024 US Presidential debate, widely seen as disastrous for Biden, yet financial markets have remained relatively steady. Institutional investors are...

Stock market highs don’t feel so high. Even though global stocks reached another all-time, the mood feels subdued. This is partly seasonal – a US national holiday and June’s option expiry date distorted trading – but partly because growth is so uneven....

Still mostly sticking to the plan Amid a cacophony of political noise, it was the Federal Reserve’s updated interest rate forecast that drove markets last week. The signal that rates would be cut just once this year was called “hawkish”, but we...