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Much appreciated slowing downGlobal stocks bounced from the previous week’s sell-off, but they’re still roughly flat over the past month. The previous big winners were, again, under the most pressure. Some are worried this might be more than quarter-end profit-taking, but the...

Mind the money flow at quarter-endMarkets wobbled thanks to quarter-end rebalancing. Institutional investors are selling winners to bring portfolios back in line after a strong quarter. Rebalancing is temporary, although the scale of the sell-off hints that liquidity is becoming less abundant...

From Wars to WarshThe US-Iran deal extending the ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz buoyed markets last week. Oil prices fell, global stocks rose and long-term bond yields settled. The Israel-Hezbollah exchange reminds us that the deal is fragile but, for...

Stall, correction and reboundEquities started poorly but finished strong last week. The Trump 80th birthday present of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has ensured that equity markets are starting this week 1-2% above last week’s close. Bonds are also rejoicing...

Markets decelerateA mostly quiet week ended with a jolt, after May’s stronger-than-expected US jobs report sent bond yields higher and equity markets lower. Investors had been rotating out of tech, but the jobs number shifted focus to potential rate rises, rather than...

Calmer marketsGlobal stocks pushed up last week and have continued to move higher as this week starts, powered by semiconductor companies. News of a 60-day US-Iran ceasefire extension saw oil prices fall to $90pb, calming nerves and lowering bond yields. May turned...

Assuming growth will winGlobal stocks and bonds have moved higher again after ending last week positively. Non-US markets led the gains and have maintained the outperformance at the start of this week. Bond markets were stronger, helped by falling energy prices following...

Waiting for reliefGlobal equities edged up 1.5% in sterling terms last week, driven by US stocks and a firmer dollar. Most other markets were weaker and all are starting this week on the back foot. Donald Trump’s visit to China was light...

Reasons to believeOperation Epic Fury is over and markets are betting that the Strait of Hormuz will be open soon. Both stocks and bonds bumped up; equities helped by strong corporate earnings especially in the US; bonds benefitting from lower inflation expectations...

Markets making the best of it Oil prices spiked back above $120pb last week and have remained close to that level as the US-Iran ceasefire frays. But the equity market casualties have been UK and European stocks, while the US has gained....

Resilient equity markets, rising risksRisks have risen but stocks are little changed. Middle Eastern ceasefires have been nominally extended but the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Both the US and Iran are conducting operations in the waterway – resulting in a tense...

Getting back on trackLast week ended with what can only be described as market euphoria, after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open”. Markets effectively decided the war to be over (even before Iran’s declaration), with the exception of oil perhaps:...

Brief relief Markets burst up on the ceasefire news but that optimism, yet again, has had to be tempered. The Strait of Hormuz now are not only closed but “blockaded, perhaps a risky attempt to create more pressure on China to press...

A seasonal central bank pivot We start April, and the new quarter, still very much dealing with the consequences of March. Both equity and bond prices are better since the close on the last Friday in March. Perhaps surprisingly given that the spot...

Markets hold their breath Donald Trump’s ‘peace plan’ for Iran and the negotiations via Pakistan gave markets a smidgen of positivity. TACO traders were not surprised that Washington postponed last weekend’s ultimatum (reopen the Strait of Hormuz or see energy infrastructure destroyed)...

Escalation precedes de-escalationThe marked escalation in the Iran conflict, which began with Israeli-US strikes against the Iranian Pars gas field followed by reprisals against Qatari gas sites and other neighbours’ key oil producing assets, has now become even hotter. This weekend has...

Capital markets’ fragile optimismStocks pulled back into the end of last week but, given war escalation and oil prices breaking above $100pb, equities still look surprisingly sanguine. That continues to be the case as we open this week’s trading, with spot Brent...

Known Unknown returnsThe Iran war has plunged markets into uncertainty with spot Brent crude oil above $105 per barrel (and having touched $120 pb) and European natural gas prices now more than doubled. European and Asian stocks have been hit harder than...

Outright war on Iran’s leaders beginsIn response to the US-Israeli military strikes and Iran’s responses, markets have reacted in the way most would have expected.  Spot oil prices will matter but investors will especially watch the futures contracts beyond six months for...

Stable indecisionOn Friday, the dollar weakened after the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs”. Initially, US stocks rose and bond prices fell but both have reversed those moves during Monday’s Asian market sessions. China’s extended new year period ending today (Monday)...