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Focus turns to Europe Global equity markets gained about 1% but, despite Europe’s political turbulence, both French and German equity markets are beating most of the rest; Sterling has gained against most currencies. Bonds marked time ahead of central bank rate decisions...

Equities and bonds go separate ways Markets tend to be quiet on the USA’s thanksgiving but, beforehand, trading was a little frenetic last week. French politics hurt its stocks, while Trump tariffs hurt emerging markets. Japanese stocks were volatile – and moved...

More and more loose ends As we formulate our 2025 market outlook, the medium-term scenario looks increasingly littered with new variables. Cracks are appearing in the ‘Trump trade’ for US stocks. Investors hoped Trump II would pick a consistent, business-friendly cabinet, but...

Reading Trump’s tea leaves Stocks were up and down last week. Investors bought into Donald Trump’s tax cut and deregulation agenda, then soured on Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell’s suggestion that interest rate cuts might be gradual. It was hoped that Trump...

Known winner, unknown outcomes We expect some risks but potentially higher rewards for US assets under a second Trump term. Markets are clearly excited, but some of the equity rally was about pent-up demand – as investors had de-risked ahead of an...

US, not UK, battening down the hatches The budget dominated headlines, but global investors were again preoccupied with US politics. We said that volatility could spike amid tense markers, and that’s exactly what happened. It could continue until the US election outcome...

Markets in brace position Markets are bracing for some big upcoming events: the UK autumn budget, and a knife-edge US presidential election. Trading volumes could fall as a result, causing volatility, but that shouldn’t detract from the positive long-term outlook. The Chancellor,...

Buy the rumour, sell the fact Despite competing market narratives, stock markets were generally stable last week. China was the only exception; it managed to fit a boom-bust cycle into the space of a few days. There are plenty of uncertainties, but...

Why are markets so calm? Middle Eastern tensions dominated the headlines, but markets were surprisingly muted. Oil prices and the dollar gained, but risk assets remained strong. Markets clearly think pro-growth signals, like US employment and Chinese consumer spending, are more important....

Global growth tailwinds For once, markets were preoccupied with non-US news last week – after China’s double shot of economic stimulus boosted Chinese (and European) stocks. Our verdict is that they will be impactful – just not quite the ‘bazooka’ levels of...

Central bank pivot 2.0 The US Federal Reserve’s 50 basis point interest rate cut was last week’s biggest story, and markets took it well. It was portrayed as a surprisingly large cut, but markets had already priced in a high chance of...

Market fears fading Global stocks recovered well last week, in a sign that the early September jitters are fading, just as the August ones did. Not because the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates again – given president Lagarde warned that...

Nervous markets ahead of second pivotCapital markets started September nervously, but our generally positive long-term view remains unchanged. China’s weakness continues to weigh on global growth: its corporate profit outlook worsened, as did demand for iron and steel. Beijing’s main support lever...

Balancing acts US stocks were weighed by tech last week, but the UK and Europe were reasonable. Britons suspect a capital gains tax (CGT) hike in autumn – which is keeping advisers busy but hasn’t had any effect on UK stocks, and...

Late summer heatwave Global stocks have turned things around from the early August sell-off. Up until the end of last week, the gains of the recovery were strong and remarkably stable. Last week’s main capital markets event was Federal Reserve chair Jerome...

Tornado rather than hurricane The market storm looked like it would become a hurricane in early August, but it ended as fast as whirlwind: stocks climbed last week without hesitation. Positivity is good, but a little unnerving. Our medium-term outlook is bright,...

Market correction turns into pothole Last week started with some of the worst stock market losses in nearly two years – prompted by recession fears and Japanese liquidity problems – but ended with most of those losses recovered. Volatility spiked across most...

Central bank week Another nervy week for investors: a slew of interest rate decisions, weak US employment data and disappointing Q2 earnings reports from US tech firms (including nasty results from Intel, which laid off 15,000 employees. On the central bank front,...

Don’t fear the rebalance The rough patch for global stocks continues – yet again concentrated in the frothy US mega-caps. Smaller caps continue to be a bright spot, but in aggregate these gains are being outweighed by large-cap losses. The “Magnificent 7”...

Shock, rotation, growth? An astounding week, that started with an attempted assassination of Donald Trump, ended with the largest global IT outage in history. As a result, markets now assume Trump will be president – and have priced in the tax cut...