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Known Unknown returnsThe Iran war has plunged markets into uncertainty with spot Brent crude oil above $105 per barrel (and having touched $120 pb) and European natural gas prices now more than doubled. European and Asian stocks have been hit harder than...

Outright war on Iran’s leaders beginsIn response to the US-Israeli military strikes and Iran’s responses, markets have reacted in the way most would have expected.  Spot oil prices will matter but investors will especially watch the futures contracts beyond six months for...

Stable indecisionOn Friday, the dollar weakened after the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs”. Initially, US stocks rose and bond prices fell but both have reversed those moves during Monday’s Asian market sessions. China’s extended new year period ending today (Monday)...

Anxiety under the surfaceAt a global index level, equities look calm but the AI winners and losers theme is raging below the surface. Last week, realized index-level volatility dropped, but single stock-level volatility stayed high. Leveraged traders are targeting companies vulnerable to...

Flipping the narrativeGlobal stocks marked time overall last week but US equities were a notable underperformer again despite a late Friday rally. AI is at the centre of the narrative but, this time, it’s not a positive. Other regions held up better:...

End of euphoria, back to normal? Equities hit all time highs early last week, but US stocks sold off after Microsoft’s earnings. A ‘normal’ sell-off based on earnings would be mildly comforting, after recent political risk sell-offs. However, there are liquidity risk signals...

Weak links in the outlookTrump threatened and retreated, but markets ended slightly down last week. On the bright side, the TACO trade is protecting against the downside.  40-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) broke through 4% for the first time ever. The long-maturity...

Are markets right to be relaxed?Markets kept up their strong start during last week, shrugging off growing political worries. This week begins with the startling escalation in “the grab for Greenland”. Both bonds and equities are under pressure and, although the US...

Optimism prevailsMarkets have started the year well, led by small and mid-cap stocks. US military action and threats barely moved markets – not even oil prices. Instead, investors are focused on reasonable growth data and its potential to improve.  According to JP...

A quiet break from the new normal The US actions in Venezuela have – as of now – had no negative impact on equity markets. In commodities, metals are stronger again, while oil is slightly lower. US bond markets are a bit...

Powell offers some liquid cheerStocks were mostly solid last week but tech was weak, culminating in a mild US sell off late on Friday. Oracle revealed ostensibly very strong numbers, but this wasn’t enough to beat analysts’ stretched forecasts. With the debt...

Waiting for a Santa RallyCapital markets felt slightly better last week, with incremental gains. Underlying these moves was a genuine improvement in the outlook. Increased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut for December – a near certainty after ADP’s weaker-than-expected employment...

Markets give thanks to central banksCapital markets had a good week. Headwinds are abating and optimists see a Santa Rally building, while pessimists see only markets not going higher.  We talk more about the UK budget below, but in short, markets took...

Ripe for a rotation Last week ended with lower stock prices and a cryptocurrency sell-off – despite a bump midweek from Nvidia’s better than expected profits (and news that Warren Buffet bought into Alphabet). Deep divisions at the Fed – likely due...

Open and shutStock markets rallied early last week and then sold off – strangely, just after Trump signed a bill to open the US government. And, just like the previous week, in the last hours of Friday trading, equities rallied. First, the...

Liquidity, actually After stocks sold off 2-3% last week, with big tech particularly vulnerable, Monday morning has seen a decent bounce. S&P 500 futures are now only 1% down from a week ago. The US Senate’s Sunday vote to push on with...

Faster change, stronger growth, bigger risksStocks climbed last week, yet again hitting various new highs although, again ending with a sense of anticlimax. The narratives didn’t change. UK markets did well across the board, reflecting an improving economy.  The US Federal Reserve...

Autumn but no fall Markets ended last week with all-time highs, but investors remain uneasily positive. We have noticed a disconnect between people’s pessimism and recently strong investment returns. With global inflation coming down business confidence better than expected, the outlook is...

Bounce and braceGlobal risk assets finally ended with a bounce last week, with portfolios still closer to where they were at the beginning of October than the highs touched before Trump’s 100% tariff threat on China. The pull-back has been healthy, considering...

Volatility on the horizonStocks were pushing all-time highs early last week, but sold off sharply after Trump’s tariff threats against China. At the open in Asian markets there was further selling but this lasted only minutes. From thereon there was healthy “dip...