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Volatility on the horizonStocks were pushing all-time highs early last week, but sold off sharply after Trump’s tariff threats against China. At the open in Asian markets there was further selling but this lasted only minutes. From thereon there was healthy “dip...

Nothing shuts down the stock marketsGlobal stocks bumped up last week, despite the US government shutdown. Perhaps markets expect a resolution, or perhaps only a mild economic impact. When US government shutdowns are short, they rarely hurt the economy too much. The...

Running out of steam Last week’s mild equity falls were probably about end-of-quarter rebalancing. After a strong rally in the last three months, there’s some inevitable profit-taking at the end of September. But we shouldn’t get complacent: there are some narrative shifts...

Slowdown? What Slowdown?The weekend’s domestic and international political events continue to be a source of risk but Monday’s markets continue close to Friday’s closing levels. Last week saw rate cuts but higher longer bond yields, and record highs for some equity markets....

Markets’ outlook preference turns positive It was a slightly confusing week. US 30-year government bond yields dropped sharply – suggesting weaker growth expectations – but small cap stocks had a strong week, suggesting the opposite. In a sense, both narratives are true....

Pause for thoughtWhen traders return from their summer holidays, they reassess their outlooks, but while there’s no shortage in narratives, stocks moved very little last week.  Long-term bond yields continued rising on Monday and Tuesday – fuelling more panic about inflation and debt...

Refuelling pause in marketsIt was another quiet week for markets. Nvidia’s Q2 earnings were expected to give some clues about the AI investment theme, but US markets didn’t react much. Nvidia shares themselves fell, despite the chipmaker exceeding its high expectations. There’s...

Market leaders taking late summer breakLast week, the Bloomberg World stock market index gained 0.5%, with mixed bond prices and UK yields rising. US large-cap stocks underperformed, while China and the UK saw gains, with the FTSE 100 reaching new all-time highs....

The slowdown never comesFriday night’s meeting between Trump and Putin has produced some clarification from Russia of the current land-grab ambition. While Putin’s proposal is not acceptable (nor designed to be so), there are elements which may lead to more discussions in...

Trump goes for easy targets as tail risks fadeMarkets regained their footing – aided by a slew of US trade deals. This is excepting a few others; Brazil and Canada with leaderships that irk Trump; and poor Switzerland because of the movement...

Busy going nowhere This week has been one of the most information-heavy in recent memory, with significant implications for global markets. Equity markets began positively but turned negative, particularly in Europe. US indices fared better, buoyed by the Magnificent Seven tech giants,...

The Meme Generation We start the week with another boost from a trade deal. The European Union has emulated Japan in securing a nearly-uniform 15% tariff on goods exported to the US. The signed agreement included autos, pharmaceuticals and metals (with a...

Higher and higher Markets keep rising on incoming liquidity. Growth optimism is improving, helped by strong early Q2 earnings reports. Volatility – both in measured and implied terms – has fallen dramatically, but measured more than implied (the cost of insuring against...

Trump turns nasty; markets turn niceMarkets were on summer holidays last week: volatility dropped and stocks broke all-time highs in local currency terms, thanks to abundant liquidity. However, nasty Trump is back and markets frayed a little as the negotiating tactic of...

Markets bask in the sunshineMarkets broke all-time highs last week. Small and mid-cap stocks outperformed the ‘Magnificent Seven’ – and even UK stocks climbed to new heights, despite the government’s policy u-turn. The rise and fall of UK bond yields showed investors...

Markets calibrate to Trump 2.0 We wrote before that US involvement in the Israel-Iran war was ‘priced in’ and therefore unlikely to hurt markets. Quite the understatement. US stocks approached all-time highs and oil prices fell the moment Iran struck a US...

The risks are real – but priced in – up to this point of escalation Last week’s Israel-Iran escalation ended with higher oil prices, a slight knock to equities and a slightly stronger dollar. Even if that seemed a relatively muted reaction...

Markets calm but not comfortable Markets’ reaction to the war that broke out Friday, after Israel’s strike on Iran, has been mild. Global stocks have fallen slightly, while gold prices and the dollar have edged up. Oil prices climbed the most –...

Summer starts with less springGlobal stock markets edged close to all-time highs, but the Trump-Musk spat knocked Tesla shares – though thankfully not much else. The bust-up is probably less important than the week’s other political news: the UK Defence Review suggests...

Complacency or checks and balances?The pullback a couple weeks ago has proved just a blip, thanks to the TACO trade (Trump Always Chickens Out) and a US trade court ruling Trump’s tariffs illegal (though the ruling was quickly suspended). Markets were happy...