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The return of regional divergence US stocks fell once again last week, while European and Chinese shares did well. The background to this was a spike in European bond yields and more political uncertainty from the Trump administration. European stocks jumped on...

Honeymoon ends early No meaningful recovery for US stocks last week – but a slight warming for European shares. Encouragingly, Keir Starmer’s charm offensive resulted in President Trump saying “tariffs wouldn’t be necessary” for the UK – but Emmanuel Macron’s earlier experience...

Global politics turn businessCapital markets ended last week on a slightly downbeat note. That was more about the US economy than its astounding shift in foreign policy – but here everyone is focussed on Donald Trump’s recasting of Russia as an ally...

Europe First? A dramatic week in global politics ended with Chinese and European stocks outperforming the US, the dollar falling back and gold prices soaring. This unusual constellation of trends points to economic sentiment re-evaluation – and perhaps declining confidence in in...

Up and down and on and off The week began with, potentially, a very distasteful pill to swallow. Trump announced another 10% of tariffs on China and new 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, the US’ closest and single largest trading partners....

Capital markets were a sea of green in Donald Trump’s first week back. US investors like his tax cut, deregulation agenda, but we have argued they might be underestimating the risks. Britons and Europeans might be biased though – as one survey...

Global stocks bounced back 2% last week and bond markets calmed. UK investors did not even have to rely on a weak pound to boost sterling-based returns. UK government bonds recovered from the previous sell-off, as we cover below. Lower-than-expected inflation data...

UK bond yield surge – more than meets the eye Bond markets took centre stage again last week. Globally, yields went up thanks to US economic strength – but UK media focussed on UK bond turmoil, as yields spiked more sharply than...

December’s market-moving events – most notably the Fed telling markets ‘bah humbug’ – didn’t spoil 2024’s year-long party in US equities; they just stopped it a little early. Investors have grown extremely confident about US growth since Trump’s election win, expecting tax...

Fed spoils the Christmas partyInvestors weren’t expecting the Federal Reserve’s hawkish forward guidance adjustment (fewer interest rate cuts to be expected in 2025) and sold off sharply on the news. That is a big change from last year’s unstoppable ‘Santa Rally’, but...

The Tatton Outlook 2025 – Overview Donald Trump is the ‘known unknown’ for 2025, and the range of possible market outcomes is wide. Markets are predicting US outperformance, thanks to pro-growth domestic policies and anti-global trade policies. Economists are less certain. ‘America...

Focus turns to Europe Global equity markets gained about 1% but, despite Europe’s political turbulence, both French and German equity markets are beating most of the rest; Sterling has gained against most currencies. Bonds marked time ahead of central bank rate decisions...

Equities and bonds go separate ways Markets tend to be quiet on the USA’s thanksgiving but, beforehand, trading was a little frenetic last week. French politics hurt its stocks, while Trump tariffs hurt emerging markets. Japanese stocks were volatile – and moved...

More and more loose ends As we formulate our 2025 market outlook, the medium-term scenario looks increasingly littered with new variables. Cracks are appearing in the ‘Trump trade’ for US stocks. Investors hoped Trump II would pick a consistent, business-friendly cabinet, but...

Reading Trump’s tea leaves Stocks were up and down last week. Investors bought into Donald Trump’s tax cut and deregulation agenda, then soured on Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell’s suggestion that interest rate cuts might be gradual. It was hoped that Trump...

Known winner, unknown outcomes We expect some risks but potentially higher rewards for US assets under a second Trump term. Markets are clearly excited, but some of the equity rally was about pent-up demand – as investors had de-risked ahead of an...

US, not UK, battening down the hatches The budget dominated headlines, but global investors were again preoccupied with US politics. We said that volatility could spike amid tense markers, and that’s exactly what happened. It could continue until the US election outcome...

Markets in brace position Markets are bracing for some big upcoming events: the UK autumn budget, and a knife-edge US presidential election. Trading volumes could fall as a result, causing volatility, but that shouldn’t detract from the positive long-term outlook. The Chancellor,...

Buy the rumour, sell the fact Despite competing market narratives, stock markets were generally stable last week. China was the only exception; it managed to fit a boom-bust cycle into the space of a few days. There are plenty of uncertainties, but...

Why are markets so calm? Middle Eastern tensions dominated the headlines, but markets were surprisingly muted. Oil prices and the dollar gained, but risk assets remained strong. Markets clearly think pro-growth signals, like US employment and Chinese consumer spending, are more important....