Monday Digest
UK bond yield surge – more than meets the eye Bond markets took centre stage again last week. Globally, yields went up thanks to US economic strength – but UK media focussed on UK bond turmoil, as yields spiked more sharply than...
Monday Digest
December’s market-moving events – most notably the Fed telling markets ‘bah humbug’ – didn’t spoil 2024’s year-long party in US equities; they just stopped it a little early. Investors have grown extremely confident about US growth since Trump’s election win, expecting tax...
Monday Digest
Fed spoils the Christmas partyInvestors weren’t expecting the Federal Reserve’s hawkish forward guidance adjustment (fewer interest rate cuts to be expected in 2025) and sold off sharply on the news. That is a big change from last year’s unstoppable ‘Santa Rally’, but...
Monday Digest
The Tatton Outlook 2025 – Overview Donald Trump is the ‘known unknown’ for 2025, and the range of possible market outcomes is wide. Markets are predicting US outperformance, thanks to pro-growth domestic policies and anti-global trade policies. Economists are less certain. ‘America...
Monday Digest
Focus turns to Europe Global equity markets gained about 1% but, despite Europe’s political turbulence, both French and German equity markets are beating most of the rest; Sterling has gained against most currencies. Bonds marked time ahead of central bank rate decisions...
Monday Digest
Equities and bonds go separate ways Markets tend to be quiet on the USA’s thanksgiving but, beforehand, trading was a little frenetic last week. French politics hurt its stocks, while Trump tariffs hurt emerging markets. Japanese stocks were volatile – and moved...
Monday Digest
More and more loose ends As we formulate our 2025 market outlook, the medium-term scenario looks increasingly littered with new variables. Cracks are appearing in the ‘Trump trade’ for US stocks. Investors hoped Trump II would pick a consistent, business-friendly cabinet, but...
Monday Digest
Reading Trump’s tea leaves Stocks were up and down last week. Investors bought into Donald Trump’s tax cut and deregulation agenda, then soured on Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell’s suggestion that interest rate cuts might be gradual. It was hoped that Trump...
Monday Digest
Known winner, unknown outcomes We expect some risks but potentially higher rewards for US assets under a second Trump term. Markets are clearly excited, but some of the equity rally was about pent-up demand – as investors had de-risked ahead of an...
Monday Digest
US, not UK, battening down the hatches The budget dominated headlines, but global investors were again preoccupied with US politics. We said that volatility could spike amid tense markers, and that’s exactly what happened. It could continue until the US election outcome...
Monday Digest
Markets in brace position Markets are bracing for some big upcoming events: the UK autumn budget, and a knife-edge US presidential election. Trading volumes could fall as a result, causing volatility, but that shouldn’t detract from the positive long-term outlook. The Chancellor,...
Monday Digest
Buy the rumour, sell the fact Despite competing market narratives, stock markets were generally stable last week. China was the only exception; it managed to fit a boom-bust cycle into the space of a few days. There are plenty of uncertainties, but...
Monday Digest
Why are markets so calm? Middle Eastern tensions dominated the headlines, but markets were surprisingly muted. Oil prices and the dollar gained, but risk assets remained strong. Markets clearly think pro-growth signals, like US employment and Chinese consumer spending, are more important....
Monday Digest
Global growth tailwinds For once, markets were preoccupied with non-US news last week – after China’s double shot of economic stimulus boosted Chinese (and European) stocks. Our verdict is that they will be impactful – just not quite the ‘bazooka’ levels of...
Monday Digest
Central bank pivot 2.0 The US Federal Reserve’s 50 basis point interest rate cut was last week’s biggest story, and markets took it well. It was portrayed as a surprisingly large cut, but markets had already priced in a high chance of...
Monday Digest
Market fears fading Global stocks recovered well last week, in a sign that the early September jitters are fading, just as the August ones did. Not because the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates again – given president Lagarde warned that...
Monday Digest
Nervous markets ahead of second pivotCapital markets started September nervously, but our generally positive long-term view remains unchanged. China’s weakness continues to weigh on global growth: its corporate profit outlook worsened, as did demand for iron and steel. Beijing’s main support lever...
Monday Digest
Balancing acts US stocks were weighed by tech last week, but the UK and Europe were reasonable. Britons suspect a capital gains tax (CGT) hike in autumn – which is keeping advisers busy but hasn’t had any effect on UK stocks, and...
Tuesday Digest
Late summer heatwave Global stocks have turned things around from the early August sell-off. Up until the end of last week, the gains of the recovery were strong and remarkably stable. Last week’s main capital markets event was Federal Reserve chair Jerome...
Monday Digest
Tornado rather than hurricane The market storm looked like it would become a hurricane in early August, but it ended as fast as whirlwind: stocks climbed last week without hesitation. Positivity is good, but a little unnerving. Our medium-term outlook is bright,...