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Are markets right to be relaxed?Markets kept up their strong start during last week, shrugging off growing political worries. This week begins with the startling escalation in “the grab for Greenland”. Both bonds and equities are under pressure and, although the US...

Optimism prevailsMarkets have started the year well, led by small and mid-cap stocks. US military action and threats barely moved markets – not even oil prices. Instead, investors are focused on reasonable growth data and its potential to improve.  According to JP...

A quiet break from the new normal The US actions in Venezuela have – as of now – had no negative impact on equity markets. In commodities, metals are stronger again, while oil is slightly lower. US bond markets are a bit...

Powell offers some liquid cheerStocks were mostly solid last week but tech was weak, culminating in a mild US sell off late on Friday. Oracle revealed ostensibly very strong numbers, but this wasn’t enough to beat analysts’ stretched forecasts. With the debt...

Waiting for a Santa RallyCapital markets felt slightly better last week, with incremental gains. Underlying these moves was a genuine improvement in the outlook. Increased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut for December – a near certainty after ADP’s weaker-than-expected employment...

Markets give thanks to central banksCapital markets had a good week. Headwinds are abating and optimists see a Santa Rally building, while pessimists see only markets not going higher.  We talk more about the UK budget below, but in short, markets took...

Ripe for a rotation Last week ended with lower stock prices and a cryptocurrency sell-off – despite a bump midweek from Nvidia’s better than expected profits (and news that Warren Buffet bought into Alphabet). Deep divisions at the Fed – likely due...

Open and shutStock markets rallied early last week and then sold off – strangely, just after Trump signed a bill to open the US government. And, just like the previous week, in the last hours of Friday trading, equities rallied. First, the...

Liquidity, actually After stocks sold off 2-3% last week, with big tech particularly vulnerable, Monday morning has seen a decent bounce. S&P 500 futures are now only 1% down from a week ago. The US Senate’s Sunday vote to push on with...

Faster change, stronger growth, bigger risksStocks climbed last week, yet again hitting various new highs although, again ending with a sense of anticlimax. The narratives didn’t change. UK markets did well across the board, reflecting an improving economy.  The US Federal Reserve...

Autumn but no fall Markets ended last week with all-time highs, but investors remain uneasily positive. We have noticed a disconnect between people’s pessimism and recently strong investment returns. With global inflation coming down business confidence better than expected, the outlook is...

Bounce and braceGlobal risk assets finally ended with a bounce last week, with portfolios still closer to where they were at the beginning of October than the highs touched before Trump’s 100% tariff threat on China. The pull-back has been healthy, considering...

Volatility on the horizonStocks were pushing all-time highs early last week, but sold off sharply after Trump’s tariff threats against China. At the open in Asian markets there was further selling but this lasted only minutes. From thereon there was healthy “dip...

Nothing shuts down the stock marketsGlobal stocks bumped up last week, despite the US government shutdown. Perhaps markets expect a resolution, or perhaps only a mild economic impact. When US government shutdowns are short, they rarely hurt the economy too much. The...

Running out of steam Last week’s mild equity falls were probably about end-of-quarter rebalancing. After a strong rally in the last three months, there’s some inevitable profit-taking at the end of September. But we shouldn’t get complacent: there are some narrative shifts...

Slowdown? What Slowdown?The weekend’s domestic and international political events continue to be a source of risk but Monday’s markets continue close to Friday’s closing levels. Last week saw rate cuts but higher longer bond yields, and record highs for some equity markets....

Markets’ outlook preference turns positive It was a slightly confusing week. US 30-year government bond yields dropped sharply – suggesting weaker growth expectations – but small cap stocks had a strong week, suggesting the opposite. In a sense, both narratives are true....

Pause for thoughtWhen traders return from their summer holidays, they reassess their outlooks, but while there’s no shortage in narratives, stocks moved very little last week.  Long-term bond yields continued rising on Monday and Tuesday – fuelling more panic about inflation and debt...

Refuelling pause in marketsIt was another quiet week for markets. Nvidia’s Q2 earnings were expected to give some clues about the AI investment theme, but US markets didn’t react much. Nvidia shares themselves fell, despite the chipmaker exceeding its high expectations. There’s...

Market leaders taking late summer breakLast week, the Bloomberg World stock market index gained 0.5%, with mixed bond prices and UK yields rising. US large-cap stocks underperformed, while China and the UK saw gains, with the FTSE 100 reaching new all-time highs....