Resilient equity markets, rising risks
Risks have risen compared to a week ago, but global stocks are little changed. The Middle East conflict has simmered down into a tense stalemate, with ongoing dialogue but little progress. Global equity indices are in a holding pattern, although US stocks...
Getting back on track
As we were writing, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open” and markets rose sharply. This time, bond yields fell back too. Even before that announcement, equity markets had, more or less, decided that the war is over – thanks to...
Brief relief
Markets burst upwards on Wednesday, as the US pulled back from the precipice and announced a ceasefire with Iran. Oil prices dropped over 15% while bonds and stock prices rallied on the hope that global supply chains might quickly return to normal....
A seasonal central bank pivot
We start April, and the new quarter, still very much dealing with the consequences of March. Both equity and bond indices’ prices are better since last Friday’s close as we write but the narrative is as febrile as at any point since...