Central bank week
It’s been another nervy week for investors. Month-end positioning may have had a part to play in creating ups and downs, but most markets were more focused on interest rate decisions. The Bank of England (BoE) cut, the Bank of Japan (BoJ)...
Don’t fear the rebalance
The rough patch for global stocks continues. Equities had a fairly dramatic fall on Wednesday, led yet again by the US large-caps. Wednesday saw both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq experiencing their worst single-day losses since 2022, and the US volatility...
Shock, rotation, growth
Shock, rotation, growth?It has been an astounding week. Capital markets took the attempted assassination of Donald Trump as practical confirmation of his victory in the upcoming presidential election. Equities moved to price in his expected agenda of tax cuts and deregulation, expectations...
Lower inflation, less profits?
It has been an interesting week in capital markets. Global stocks are a nudge above where they were last Friday in aggregate, but this hides a great deal of variation. There was a steady climb early in the week, led once again...
New government, same economy
Keir Starmer was not wrong when he called this an historic victory. It is the Labour party’s first election win since 2005, ending 14 years of Conservative rule and handing the latter party its worst ever defeat. The results were emphatic, but...
The business of politics, politics without policy
This Friday marks the end of the second quarter and the day after the first, and for Biden disastrous, televised debate of the 2024 US Presidential election – yet markets have been reasonably calm. Large institutional investors are in the midst of...
Stock market highs don’t feel so high
It was another mixed week for capital markets. Global stocks reached another all-time high on Thursday, but the mood feels subdued. This is partly seasonal: US traders had a shortened week due to the “Juneteenth” national holiday (celebrating the abolition of slavery),...
Still mostly sticking to the plan
After a cacophony of political noise, central bankers were again the ones to really strike a chord with capital markets this week. Britain’s political parties unveiled their manifestos and French President Macron shocked everyone with a surprise election call – causing fairly...
ECB’s Lagard makes rate cut history
Rate cuts at last. In a heavily anticipated decision, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the first time in five years on Thursday. Perhaps more poignantly, it was the very first time in its 25 years existence that the...
Consolidation
Capital markets were in a dreary mood again this week, with global stocks generally ending the week down between 0.5 and 1%. That almost exactly tracks US stocks, with the S&P 500 losing just under 0.3% through the week. UK equities fared...
Nvidia versus the Fed
Following the strong upwards surge in stocks and bonds at the beginning of May, capital markets have recently moderated and were mostly flat, to slightly down, overall this week. Britons were preoccupied with Rishi Sunak’s surprise election call – polling now less...
Pluses and minuses
It was a decent week for investors, with global stocks up around 1% from last Friday. British and European equities finished virtually flat, with the US and China slightly up. The gain for US stocks was not outsized, but it was enough...
A blooming May for the UK
Stocks and bonds had a good week again, revelling in the after-effects of last week’s US Federal Reserve meeting and signals of a tepid US jobs market in the April employment report. Hong Kong stocks did particularly well, after the Chinese authorities...
Still sticking to the plan
Equity and bond markets have had a reasonably good week, with policy makers helping to calm nerves. Geopolitical concerns retreated further; the US and Saudi Arabia are close to a bilateral agreement which may well include the formal recognition of Israel. Meanwhile,...
Inflation, a common side effect of growth
Intraday equity market volatility is back, as this roller coaster week showed. Still, we yet again seem to be ending flattish after a busy end to the week. UK markets were strong, helped by the bid for Anglo-American from BHP. Anglo American’s...
Market quiet on the Middle Eastern front
The Middle East is dominating world news again, as the awful moment has come when Israel and Iran have engaged in open and direct conflict, albeit at great distance. That the warfare is across considerable distances makes it different to close conflicts...
What the return of volatility tells us
The week has seen quite large price movements in asset markets even though, overall, equities are relatively stable. The UK’s main market index, the FTSE 100, is higher and among the better index performers globally. It came very close to closing Friday...
Bumpy start to the quarter
Following on from two very strong quarters for investors in risk assets, the start of the second quarter has seen a sudden change of mood, and the first distinct bout of equity volatility this year. Indeed, on Thursday, the American leading stock...
Everyone is an optimist now
Asset price volatility continues to decrease, much like it has done across the quarter, so we can be reasonably sure that Q1 2024 will finish strongly positive for equity markets across the world. This week (so far) has been another reasonable one,...
Stick to the plan
The northern hemisphere has now entered the brighter half of the year, the days getting longer, lighter and warmer. Financial markets are also brightening. This week has been good across the global board for equities and bonds. The most obvious reason for...