US, not UK battening down the hatches
Rachel Reeves’ autumn budget dominated the UK news this week, but global investors were yet again preoccupied with the US election. Both created market jitters for UK investors, culminating in a noticeable fall in global stock prices on Thursday. We wrote last...
Markets in brace position
Capital markets feel more tense than at any point since the beginning of September. Global stocks have sold off slightly this week, but without sharp moves. It would be wrong to say that investors are fearful. In general, the global economic outlook...
Focus returns to stock market fundamentals
Capital markets quietened down this week. Global stocks are up from a week ago, and there is a sense that anxieties are fading. Risks and uncertainties have not gone away completely, but their short-term impacts on risk assets look smaller. There was...
Buy the rumour, sell the fact
For a week with so many competing market narratives, global stocks were fairly stable. However, the S&P 500 continues to hit new highs and is doing so as we write. Broadly, US equities were stronger despite higher than expected inflation data, while...
Why are markets so calm?
Raised tensions in the Middle East have dominated the headlines this week. Capital markets are obviously not the most humanly important consideration in this situation, but our job as investment managers is to think about how they might react. Initially, global stocks...
Global growth tailwinds
Rarely do non-US stories dominate global capital markets as much as this week. China announced a double shot of economic stimulus that surprised most – and Chinese stocks surged in response. European equities, particularly luxury goods brands, also jumped, in a hopeful...
Central bank Pivot 2.0
Central banks dominated the narrative this week. The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 50 basis point cut to interest rates was by far the biggest market news, surprising some who expected a smaller move. Investors took the news well, with the S&P 500...
Market fears fading
Capital markets picked themselves up this week. Global stocks are up, recovering well from a tough start to September. At the time of writing, not all of last week’s losses have been recovered, but markets seem to breathe a sigh of relief....
Nervous markets ahead of second pivot
Capital markets have started September rather despondently. It feels similar to (though not nearly as bad as) the sell-off that started in August, after which stock values quickly recovered. There were risks and headwinds back then, but nothing that significantly dampened the...
Balancing acts
It was a flat week for global stock values, but with a fair amount of dispersion. US returns were once again weighed down by tech, but the UK and Europe are up over 1% at the time of writing. The overall sluggish...
Late Summer heatwave
Global stocks continued their climb higher until the latter part of this week. The rise up until Wednesday had shown remarkably steady gains in daily terms. When you put that together with gains over the last few weeks, equity returns have been...
Tornado rather than hurricane
After stocks sank in early August, we warned that volatility could ripple on, and the market storm turn into a full-blown hurricane. But this week saw a remarkable dying-down of the volatility, like a whirlwind that passes in an hour: stock markets...
Market correction turns into pothole
Our sign-off last week was supposed to be cautiously optimistic – predicting a bumpy ride to a decent destination in markets – but friends told us it read a little negatively. Cue the worst daily loss for the S&P 500 in nearly...
Central bank week
It’s been another nervy week for investors. Month-end positioning may have had a part to play in creating ups and downs, but most markets were more focused on interest rate decisions. The Bank of England (BoE) cut, the Bank of Japan (BoJ)...
Don’t fear the rebalance
The rough patch for global stocks continues. Equities had a fairly dramatic fall on Wednesday, led yet again by the US large-caps. Wednesday saw both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq experiencing their worst single-day losses since 2022, and the US volatility...
Shock, rotation, growth
Shock, rotation, growth?It has been an astounding week. Capital markets took the attempted assassination of Donald Trump as practical confirmation of his victory in the upcoming presidential election. Equities moved to price in his expected agenda of tax cuts and deregulation, expectations...
Lower inflation, less profits?
It has been an interesting week in capital markets. Global stocks are a nudge above where they were last Friday in aggregate, but this hides a great deal of variation. There was a steady climb early in the week, led once again...
New government, same economy
Keir Starmer was not wrong when he called this an historic victory. It is the Labour party’s first election win since 2005, ending 14 years of Conservative rule and handing the latter party its worst ever defeat. The results were emphatic, but...
The business of politics, politics without policy
This Friday marks the end of the second quarter and the day after the first, and for Biden disastrous, televised debate of the 2024 US Presidential election – yet markets have been reasonably calm. Large institutional investors are in the midst of...
Stock market highs don’t feel so high
It was another mixed week for capital markets. Global stocks reached another all-time high on Thursday, but the mood feels subdued. This is partly seasonal: US traders had a shortened week due to the “Juneteenth” national holiday (celebrating the abolition of slavery),...