Regaining confidence after July’s drought
The announcement of yet another Iran deal buoyed stock markets this week. Iran and Oman reportedly agreed a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, which would temporarily solve the issue that collapsed the US-Iran ceasefire last month. The normalisation of...
Learn to make your mind up
This week has seen marked volatility in bonds and a number of major high-profile stocks. Some of it has been a little concerning and yet, most portfolios will probably show a reasonably positive outcome. That’s what diversification is all about. The major...
Hiatus in optimism
Equity and bond markets came under pressure this week, as oil prices rose above $100 per barrel again. The downside was clearest in bond markets, with long-term government yields moving up sharply. Stocks held up a little better in aggregate in the...
AI froth coming off
The summer lull has arrived early. Broad stock indices, bonds and even oil prices have bounced up and down over the last two weeks without any clear direction. The previous AI winners, particularly semiconductors (chips), are the exception: they have swung from...
Markets keep calm and carry on with business
Markets keep calm and carry on with businessJust as markets had downgraded the risks emanating from the Middle East, they flared up again. Yet again, however, it is telling how measured the market’s reaction has been to ships being set ablaze in...
Much appreciated slowing down
Global stocks recovered from last week’s sell-off, but are still only roughly flat from a month ago. Once again, the previous big winners – like US tech – are the most under pressure. Last week, we put these moves down to institutional...
Mind the money flow at quarter end
Stock markets, predictably, wobbled this week. Investors have seen great returns this quarter despite intense global risks, so now many institutional investment managers must rebalance their asset weightings back to target – by selling the assets that have done well. Rebalancing selling...
From Wars to Warsh
The deal between US and Iran, which extends the ceasefire and opens the Strait of Hormuz, is unequivocally good news for markets. Oil prices are sharply down, global stocks are up and long-term bond yields have calmed. We can be sceptical about...
Stall, correction and rebound
Equities started the week poorly but ended strong – a reversal of last week. Trading liquidity was initially tight as investors contemplated a glut of newly issued shares, most notably today’s SpaceX IPO, but liquidity returned on Friday amid good news stories....
Markets decelerate
Until Friday lunch time, it was a fairly dull week for markets. News of an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire eased concerns but did not materially change the Middle East stalemate. As we write, though, traders are digesting a stronger than expected US employment report....
Calmer markets
Global stocks pushed higher this week, led yet again by global tech stocks. Semiconductor chip makers were especially strong. On Thursday, Axios reported that US and Iranian officials had agreed a 60-day ceasefire extension, during which they would negotiate a resolution to...
Assuming growth will win
Global stocks and global bonds are ending the week positively, with the gains coming mostly in non-US markets. This is the first week since the end of March that big US tech stocks have underperformed. That underperformance comes despite continued strong results...
Waiting for relief
The Bloomberg World Equity index is up 1.5% in sterling terms as we close the week, although virtually all of that gain comes from US stocks and a stronger US Dollar. Donald Trump’s high-profile visit to China had no notable surprises, which...
Reasons to believe
Markets are feeling hopeful. Iran is still mulling over Donald Trump’s proposal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but investors are betting on a done deal. Oil prices dropped from around $115 per barrel [pb] on Monday to...
Markets making the best of it
The risks we wrote about last week keep rising. The continued US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, along with reports that the US might restart attacks, sent oil prices above $120 per barrel in midweek trading. They have since settled down...
Resilient equity markets, rising risks
Risks have risen compared to a week ago, but global stocks are little changed. The Middle East conflict has simmered down into a tense stalemate, with ongoing dialogue but little progress. Global equity indices are in a holding pattern, although US stocks...
Getting back on track
As we were writing, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open” and markets rose sharply. This time, bond yields fell back too. Even before that announcement, equity markets had, more or less, decided that the war is over – thanks to...
Brief relief
Markets burst upwards on Wednesday, as the US pulled back from the precipice and announced a ceasefire with Iran. Oil prices dropped over 15% while bonds and stock prices rallied on the hope that global supply chains might quickly return to normal....
A seasonal central bank pivot
We start April, and the new quarter, still very much dealing with the consequences of March. Both equity and bond indices’ prices are better since last Friday’s close as we write but the narrative is as febrile as at any point since...
Markets hold their breath
Donald Trump’s apparent olive branch to Iran helped to temporarily stabilise markets this week. Stock prices gained a little in the early part of the week, government bond yields fell back from recent highs, and energy prices dropped back from last Friday’s...