Markets keep calm and carry on with business
Markets keep calm and carry on with businessJust as markets had downgraded the risks emanating from the Middle East, they flared up again. Yet again, however, it is telling how measured the market’s reaction has been to ships being set ablaze in...
Much appreciated slowing down
Global stocks recovered from last week’s sell-off, but are still only roughly flat from a month ago. Once again, the previous big winners – like US tech – are the most under pressure. Last week, we put these moves down to institutional...
Mind the money flow at quarter end
Stock markets, predictably, wobbled this week. Investors have seen great returns this quarter despite intense global risks, so now many institutional investment managers must rebalance their asset weightings back to target – by selling the assets that have done well. Rebalancing selling...
From Wars to Warsh
The deal between US and Iran, which extends the ceasefire and opens the Strait of Hormuz, is unequivocally good news for markets. Oil prices are sharply down, global stocks are up and long-term bond yields have calmed. We can be sceptical about...
Stall, correction and rebound
Equities started the week poorly but ended strong – a reversal of last week. Trading liquidity was initially tight as investors contemplated a glut of newly issued shares, most notably today’s SpaceX IPO, but liquidity returned on Friday amid good news stories....
Markets decelerate
Until Friday lunch time, it was a fairly dull week for markets. News of an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire eased concerns but did not materially change the Middle East stalemate. As we write, though, traders are digesting a stronger than expected US employment report....
Calmer markets
Global stocks pushed higher this week, led yet again by global tech stocks. Semiconductor chip makers were especially strong. On Thursday, Axios reported that US and Iranian officials had agreed a 60-day ceasefire extension, during which they would negotiate a resolution to...
Assuming growth will win
Global stocks and global bonds are ending the week positively, with the gains coming mostly in non-US markets. This is the first week since the end of March that big US tech stocks have underperformed. That underperformance comes despite continued strong results...
Waiting for relief
The Bloomberg World Equity index is up 1.5% in sterling terms as we close the week, although virtually all of that gain comes from US stocks and a stronger US Dollar. Donald Trump’s high-profile visit to China had no notable surprises, which...
Reasons to believe
Markets are feeling hopeful. Iran is still mulling over Donald Trump’s proposal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but investors are betting on a done deal. Oil prices dropped from around $115 per barrel [pb] on Monday to...
Markets making the best of it
The risks we wrote about last week keep rising. The continued US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, along with reports that the US might restart attacks, sent oil prices above $120 per barrel in midweek trading. They have since settled down...
Resilient equity markets, rising risks
Risks have risen compared to a week ago, but global stocks are little changed. The Middle East conflict has simmered down into a tense stalemate, with ongoing dialogue but little progress. Global equity indices are in a holding pattern, although US stocks...
Getting back on track
As we were writing, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open” and markets rose sharply. This time, bond yields fell back too. Even before that announcement, equity markets had, more or less, decided that the war is over – thanks to...
Brief relief
Markets burst upwards on Wednesday, as the US pulled back from the precipice and announced a ceasefire with Iran. Oil prices dropped over 15% while bonds and stock prices rallied on the hope that global supply chains might quickly return to normal....
A seasonal central bank pivot
We start April, and the new quarter, still very much dealing with the consequences of March. Both equity and bond indices’ prices are better since last Friday’s close as we write but the narrative is as febrile as at any point since...
Markets hold their breath
Donald Trump’s apparent olive branch to Iran helped to temporarily stabilise markets this week. Stock prices gained a little in the early part of the week, government bond yields fell back from recent highs, and energy prices dropped back from last Friday’s...
Escalation precedes de-escalation
The Iran War keeps dragging down markets. Israel’s strike on Iran’s South Pars gas facility, followed by Iran’s strike on a Qatari liquified natural gas facility – the largest in the world – saw crude oil spike above $115 per barrel and...
Capital markets’ fragile optimism
Stock markets pulled back over the last couple of days, as oil prices rose to around $100 per barrel (pb). Before that, equities had been holding up okay, particularly large cap stocks. Sterling has slipped about 0.5% against the US Dollar which...
Known Unknowns returns
The US and Israel’s war against Iran has plunged capital markets into uncertainty. No one knows how long it will last, what the endgame is or how much the global economy will be disrupted along the way. Markets are famously ignorant of...
AI boom or doom
Global stocks went more or less nowhere this week. The UK and Europe’s strong runs continued, US markets consolidated, and China returned from holidays to find increasing overseas demand for the Renminbi. President Trump’s State of the Union Address barely moved markets....