UK bond yield surge – more than meets the eye
Bond market woes took centre stage again this week. Much of this was driven by the strength of the US economy, as shown by today’s strong employment data and signs that US consumer services are powering ahead (although, interestingly, wages rises were...
Happy New Year!
We start this year with a condensed Tatton Weekly, sharing with you a few thoughts about some relevant events over the holiday period and the first few days of 2025. Next week, we will be back to the usual extensive format, bringing...
Fed spoils the Christmas party
Not only did the ‘Santa Rally’ not arrive this year, but global stocks had a notable sell-off on Wednesday night. This came after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) told investors not to expect many interest rate cuts in 2025, a pretty stark...
Don’t fear the rebalance
Capital markets were choppy this week, unsurprisingly. At the end of a very strong year in stock markets, investors typically rebalance their holdings and take profits, so mild selling pressures are to be expected. This absence of a Santa Rally should not...
Focus turns to Europe
November was a month to remember in terms of news and, for the US especially, one which was positive for economic and market optimism. We cover asset class performance in our usual monthly market review in an article below. This week, global...
Equities and bonds go separate ways
Global financial markets appreciate the USA’s Thanksgiving holiday, which tends to be the quietest of its unique holidays. Markets can be frenetic in the lead up though, as it proved this week. Although developed market equities were calm in sterling terms, stocks...
More and more loose ends
We are getting to that time of year when investment houses like us write their annual market outlooks. That is easier to do if the loose threads wrap themselves up before Christmas, but right now the opposite is happening. Uncertainty is growing,...
Reading Trump’s tea leaves
It was an up and down week for global stocks. Markets initially showed confidence in Donald Trump’s tax cut and deregulation agenda – but pulled back when Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell suggested interest rate cuts might have to be gradual. The...
Known winner, unknown outcomes
For the sake of investors, we hoped for a quickly resolved US election, and we got one. Capital markets responded well to Donald Trump’s surprisingly decisive win, with US stocks rallying from Wednesday on. Investors deemed it good news for the US,...
US, not UK battening down the hatches
Rachel Reeves’ autumn budget dominated the UK news this week, but global investors were yet again preoccupied with the US election. Both created market jitters for UK investors, culminating in a noticeable fall in global stock prices on Thursday. We wrote last...
Markets in brace position
Capital markets feel more tense than at any point since the beginning of September. Global stocks have sold off slightly this week, but without sharp moves. It would be wrong to say that investors are fearful. In general, the global economic outlook...
Focus returns to stock market fundamentals
Capital markets quietened down this week. Global stocks are up from a week ago, and there is a sense that anxieties are fading. Risks and uncertainties have not gone away completely, but their short-term impacts on risk assets look smaller. There was...
Buy the rumour, sell the fact
For a week with so many competing market narratives, global stocks were fairly stable. However, the S&P 500 continues to hit new highs and is doing so as we write. Broadly, US equities were stronger despite higher than expected inflation data, while...
Why are markets so calm?
Raised tensions in the Middle East have dominated the headlines this week. Capital markets are obviously not the most humanly important consideration in this situation, but our job as investment managers is to think about how they might react. Initially, global stocks...
Global growth tailwinds
Rarely do non-US stories dominate global capital markets as much as this week. China announced a double shot of economic stimulus that surprised most – and Chinese stocks surged in response. European equities, particularly luxury goods brands, also jumped, in a hopeful...
Central bank Pivot 2.0
Central banks dominated the narrative this week. The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 50 basis point cut to interest rates was by far the biggest market news, surprising some who expected a smaller move. Investors took the news well, with the S&P 500...
Market fears fading
Capital markets picked themselves up this week. Global stocks are up, recovering well from a tough start to September. At the time of writing, not all of last week’s losses have been recovered, but markets seem to breathe a sigh of relief....
Nervous markets ahead of second pivot
Capital markets have started September rather despondently. It feels similar to (though not nearly as bad as) the sell-off that started in August, after which stock values quickly recovered. There were risks and headwinds back then, but nothing that significantly dampened the...
Balancing acts
It was a flat week for global stock values, but with a fair amount of dispersion. US returns were once again weighed down by tech, but the UK and Europe are up over 1% at the time of writing. The overall sluggish...
Late Summer heatwave
Global stocks continued their climb higher until the latter part of this week. The rise up until Wednesday had shown remarkably steady gains in daily terms. When you put that together with gains over the last few weeks, equity returns have been...