The return of regional divergence
At the time of writing, global stocks in aggregate are around where they were a week ago in local currency terms, but the fall in the US Dollar means the Bloomberg World index is about -3% in Sterling terms. Once again, the...
Honeymoon ends early
There was no meaningful recovery for US stocks this week, following their cold shower last Friday. By contrast, Europe actually managed to warm a little through this week. Investors’ shift away from the US continues, and markets are no longer enamoured by...
Global politics turn business
We end the week on a slightly downbeat note, not borne out of the astounding shifts in US foreign policy, but because US domestic service sector sentiment seems to have sagged. The US 10-year bond yield has dropped back to below 4.5%...
Europe First?
Another dramatic week in global politics had rare and fascinating effects on capital markets. The Trump administration’s apparent plan to negotiate a Ukraine peace deal without European input, but leave European nations to foot the bill and bear the political consequences, is...
Up and down and on and off
The week began with, potentially, a very distasteful pill to swallow. On Friday evening, just before 6pm GMT and after European markets had closed, Trump announced another 10% of tariffs on China and new 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, the US’...
AI upset challenges market status quo
It has been another interesting week in markets, although for different reasons than recently. Most of the major regional stock indices have performed well, but global equities are down in aggregate. This is largely down to the underperformance of Nvidia, following the...
Trump trade still on?
Capital markets were a sea of green in Donald Trump’s first week back in office. Investors’ serenity stands in contrast to the rhetoric and early flurry of policy from the US president. We have said before that markets may not to appreciate...
Calmer markets ahead of Trump inauguration
With global stocks bouncing back over 2%, this week has been the best of the year! UK investors did not even have to rely on a weak pound to bolster Sterling-based returns. French stocks gained over 4%, while smaller cap stocks in...
UK bond yield surge – more than meets the eye
Bond market woes took centre stage again this week. Much of this was driven by the strength of the US economy, as shown by today’s strong employment data and signs that US consumer services are powering ahead (although, interestingly, wages rises were...
Happy New Year!
We start this year with a condensed Tatton Weekly, sharing with you a few thoughts about some relevant events over the holiday period and the first few days of 2025. Next week, we will be back to the usual extensive format, bringing...
Fed spoils the Christmas party
Not only did the ‘Santa Rally’ not arrive this year, but global stocks had a notable sell-off on Wednesday night. This came after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) told investors not to expect many interest rate cuts in 2025, a pretty stark...
Don’t fear the rebalance
Capital markets were choppy this week, unsurprisingly. At the end of a very strong year in stock markets, investors typically rebalance their holdings and take profits, so mild selling pressures are to be expected. This absence of a Santa Rally should not...
Focus turns to Europe
November was a month to remember in terms of news and, for the US especially, one which was positive for economic and market optimism. We cover asset class performance in our usual monthly market review in an article below. This week, global...
Equities and bonds go separate ways
Global financial markets appreciate the USA’s Thanksgiving holiday, which tends to be the quietest of its unique holidays. Markets can be frenetic in the lead up though, as it proved this week. Although developed market equities were calm in sterling terms, stocks...
More and more loose ends
We are getting to that time of year when investment houses like us write their annual market outlooks. That is easier to do if the loose threads wrap themselves up before Christmas, but right now the opposite is happening. Uncertainty is growing,...
Reading Trump’s tea leaves
It was an up and down week for global stocks. Markets initially showed confidence in Donald Trump’s tax cut and deregulation agenda – but pulled back when Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell suggested interest rate cuts might have to be gradual. The...
Known winner, unknown outcomes
For the sake of investors, we hoped for a quickly resolved US election, and we got one. Capital markets responded well to Donald Trump’s surprisingly decisive win, with US stocks rallying from Wednesday on. Investors deemed it good news for the US,...
US, not UK battening down the hatches
Rachel Reeves’ autumn budget dominated the UK news this week, but global investors were yet again preoccupied with the US election. Both created market jitters for UK investors, culminating in a noticeable fall in global stock prices on Thursday. We wrote last...
Markets in brace position
Capital markets feel more tense than at any point since the beginning of September. Global stocks have sold off slightly this week, but without sharp moves. It would be wrong to say that investors are fearful. In general, the global economic outlook...
Focus returns to stock market fundamentals
Capital markets quietened down this week. Global stocks are up from a week ago, and there is a sense that anxieties are fading. Risks and uncertainties have not gone away completely, but their short-term impacts on risk assets look smaller. There was...