Still mostly sticking to the plan
After a cacophony of political noise, central bankers were again the ones to really strike a chord with capital markets this week. Britain’s political parties unveiled their manifestos and French President Macron shocked everyone with a surprise election call – causing fairly...
ECB’s Lagard makes rate cut history
Rate cuts at last. In a heavily anticipated decision, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the first time in five years on Thursday. Perhaps more poignantly, it was the very first time in its 25 years existence that the...
Consolidation
Capital markets were in a dreary mood again this week, with global stocks generally ending the week down between 0.5 and 1%. That almost exactly tracks US stocks, with the S&P 500 losing just under 0.3% through the week. UK equities fared...
Nvidia versus the Fed
Following the strong upwards surge in stocks and bonds at the beginning of May, capital markets have recently moderated and were mostly flat, to slightly down, overall this week. Britons were preoccupied with Rishi Sunak’s surprise election call – polling now less...
Pluses and minuses
It was a decent week for investors, with global stocks up around 1% from last Friday. British and European equities finished virtually flat, with the US and China slightly up. The gain for US stocks was not outsized, but it was enough...
A blooming May for the UK
Stocks and bonds had a good week again, revelling in the after-effects of last week’s US Federal Reserve meeting and signals of a tepid US jobs market in the April employment report. Hong Kong stocks did particularly well, after the Chinese authorities...
Still sticking to the plan
Equity and bond markets have had a reasonably good week, with policy makers helping to calm nerves. Geopolitical concerns retreated further; the US and Saudi Arabia are close to a bilateral agreement which may well include the formal recognition of Israel. Meanwhile,...
Inflation, a common side effect of growth
Intraday equity market volatility is back, as this roller coaster week showed. Still, we yet again seem to be ending flattish after a busy end to the week. UK markets were strong, helped by the bid for Anglo-American from BHP. Anglo American’s...
Market quiet on the Middle Eastern front
The Middle East is dominating world news again, as the awful moment has come when Israel and Iran have engaged in open and direct conflict, albeit at great distance. That the warfare is across considerable distances makes it different to close conflicts...
What the return of volatility tells us
The week has seen quite large price movements in asset markets even though, overall, equities are relatively stable. The UK’s main market index, the FTSE 100, is higher and among the better index performers globally. It came very close to closing Friday...
Bumpy start to the quarter
Following on from two very strong quarters for investors in risk assets, the start of the second quarter has seen a sudden change of mood, and the first distinct bout of equity volatility this year. Indeed, on Thursday, the American leading stock...
Everyone is an optimist now
Asset price volatility continues to decrease, much like it has done across the quarter, so we can be reasonably sure that Q1 2024 will finish strongly positive for equity markets across the world. This week (so far) has been another reasonable one,...
Stick to the plan
The northern hemisphere has now entered the brighter half of the year, the days getting longer, lighter and warmer. Financial markets are also brightening. This week has been good across the global board for equities and bonds. The most obvious reason for...
The flipside of inflation – growth
Consolidation continued in most equity markets this week, although bond prices did actually drop somewhat. UK and European equity markets are stronger, Japan is weaker and US large caps are largely unchanged, although there is a sense of mild disappointment as investors...
At least currency markets noticed the budget
This week has seen global markets showing gains again. The FTSE 100 is a little lower but the US S&P 500 hit another all-time high, driven by renewed interest in megacaps. Bond prices rose and sterling is stronger against the US Dollar....
Winners and losers of stabilising yields
We ended February and start March with a week of positive price action in equities, although the US mega-caps did less well generally, while bond markets were rather stable. Indeed, we think stable bond markets – pretty much since the beginning of...
M&A activity sets growth against value
Equities have moved higher again this week, with gains made across global markets. Even China put in another week of positive returns, following the largest ever-cut to the five-year housing loan prime rate (admittedly only 0.25%). Government bonds have not done so...
UK not growing really, not growing nominally
As regular readers will know, we tend not to comment on UK matters as much as some, partly because the investment portfolios we manage for UK clients are quite globally focused. But the UK as our home is important to us and...
US stock market entering bubble territory?
This was the week when the US large-cap equity market shook off the rest of the world and marched to yet another new milestone. The S&P 500 traded above 5,000 for the first time on Thursday night. It also shook off another...
Central banks challenge Goldilocks assumptions
The first month of the year is behind us and, despite what many expected, returns were positive for most investors. Following the initial hangover from last year’s tremendous Santa Rally, risk asset markets continued on their upward trajectory. That was until the...