Improving mood versus slowing growth
Capital markets bounced this week and the mood notably improved. Media commentary put this down to Donald Trump’s softer rhetoric on Chinese tariffs, and his affirmation of the US central bank’s (the Federal Reserve’s) independence. Equities and bonds were positively impacted, not...
Volatility drops but uncertainty remains
We head into the long Easter weekend with calmer markets than a week ago – but without any strong rebound. Time off from the tariff drama has helped the mood and eased last week’s liquidity concerns, but there still is not much...
Ceasefire, not truce, in global trade war
After a week of eye-watering ups and downs, stock markets are roughly where they started but still well below where they were before Trump’s April 2nd ‘Liberation Day’. For bond holders, it has been equally volatile but prices are more than slightly...
Trump’s Liberation Day turns into market clear out
Donald Trump’s tariffs upset markets, which were unprepared for their magnitude. The US imposed a 10% tariff on most imports, and additional “reciprocal” tariffs on major trading partners. Unsurprisingly, this was followed by China’s 34% retaliatory tariff this morning. Global stocks sold...
Tariff ‘stick’ to be followed by ‘fiscal’ carrot?
As most of us are aware, markets have recently been taking one step forward, one step back and this week was no different. Equity markets started with a bit of positivity amid talk that Trump’s April 2nd tariff “Liberation Day” was going...
Bracing for tariff “Liberation Day”
Capital markets were calmer for most of the week, with a little turbulence into the end. Up until Thursday close, stock prices moved higher and measures of intraday volatility fell somewhat, largely thanks to fewer signs of policy upheaval from the US...
Just another growth scare or more?
Following the pause last week, the stock market sell-off unfortunately resumed this week. Global government bonds unhelpfully joined the downdraft as bond yields edged up. Equity markets are generally only slightly lower in Sterling terms but, for the third week in a...
The return of regional divergence
At the time of writing, global stocks in aggregate are around where they were a week ago in local currency terms, but the fall in the US Dollar means the Bloomberg World index is about -3% in Sterling terms. Once again, the...
Honeymoon ends early
There was no meaningful recovery for US stocks this week, following their cold shower last Friday. By contrast, Europe actually managed to warm a little through this week. Investors’ shift away from the US continues, and markets are no longer enamoured by...
Global politics turn business
We end the week on a slightly downbeat note, not borne out of the astounding shifts in US foreign policy, but because US domestic service sector sentiment seems to have sagged. The US 10-year bond yield has dropped back to below 4.5%...
Europe First?
Another dramatic week in global politics had rare and fascinating effects on capital markets. The Trump administration’s apparent plan to negotiate a Ukraine peace deal without European input, but leave European nations to foot the bill and bear the political consequences, is...
Up and down and on and off
The week began with, potentially, a very distasteful pill to swallow. On Friday evening, just before 6pm GMT and after European markets had closed, Trump announced another 10% of tariffs on China and new 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, the US’...
AI upset challenges market status quo
It has been another interesting week in markets, although for different reasons than recently. Most of the major regional stock indices have performed well, but global equities are down in aggregate. This is largely down to the underperformance of Nvidia, following the...
Trump trade still on?
Capital markets were a sea of green in Donald Trump’s first week back in office. Investors’ serenity stands in contrast to the rhetoric and early flurry of policy from the US president. We have said before that markets may not to appreciate...
Calmer markets ahead of Trump inauguration
With global stocks bouncing back over 2%, this week has been the best of the year! UK investors did not even have to rely on a weak pound to bolster Sterling-based returns. French stocks gained over 4%, while smaller cap stocks in...
UK bond yield surge – more than meets the eye
Bond market woes took centre stage again this week. Much of this was driven by the strength of the US economy, as shown by today’s strong employment data and signs that US consumer services are powering ahead (although, interestingly, wages rises were...
Happy New Year!
We start this year with a condensed Tatton Weekly, sharing with you a few thoughts about some relevant events over the holiday period and the first few days of 2025. Next week, we will be back to the usual extensive format, bringing...
Fed spoils the Christmas party
Not only did the ‘Santa Rally’ not arrive this year, but global stocks had a notable sell-off on Wednesday night. This came after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) told investors not to expect many interest rate cuts in 2025, a pretty stark...
Don’t fear the rebalance
Capital markets were choppy this week, unsurprisingly. At the end of a very strong year in stock markets, investors typically rebalance their holdings and take profits, so mild selling pressures are to be expected. This absence of a Santa Rally should not...
Focus turns to Europe
November was a month to remember in terms of news and, for the US especially, one which was positive for economic and market optimism. We cover asset class performance in our usual monthly market review in an article below. This week, global...