Library

Overview: Economic resistance is about to be testedSeptember is rarely a great month for investors, and last month proved no exception. Broadly, both equities and bond values declined and there is increasing sentiment that the 2023 market recovery is running out of...

Historically September has on average not been great for investors, and as it turns out this year is no exception to that norm. Both equities and bond valuations have declined and even though equities have not materially moved up or down when...

Overview: to yield or not to yield?Last week, stocks and bonds ended up bruised following the ‘hawkish pause’. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced on Wednesday it would hold interest rates steady at 5.25-5.5%, but threw in some stern forward guidance to...

This week, stocks and bondsare still bruised from the ‘hawkish pause’. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced on Wednesday that it would hold interest rates steady at 5.25-5.5%, but threw in some stern forward guidance to dispel any doubts it might be...

As the UK cost-of-living crisis continues to dominate both headlines and debates in Parliament, ESG considerations appear to have rapidly fallen down the government’s agenda. Environment Minister Zac Goldsmith’s resignation letter sparked concerns that the current crisis around domestic budgets has overshadowed...

Overview: Central bank hawks still determined to defang inflationThis time last week, it still seemed as if European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers would hold off on another rate hike, following some dire economic data. But on Thursday, the ECB raised its deposit...

The European Central Bank (ECB) raised rates yesterday, with the majority of its Governing Council members concerned that the inflation parasite may be alive for a while longer. Of course, parasites can continue to be robust while their host becomes pale and...

The impact of interest rate rises on UK consumers is not evenly spread. Some consumers are benefitting, which is in turn causing their spending to remain resilient, which bolsters demand and ultimately keeps inflation persistent –  a tricky situation for the Bank...

Overview: oil prices up and an ill wind for renewablesSo far Markets have been generally quiet during September, but energy is again becoming an issue. Oil prices have risen since the start of the summer, with Brent crude having bounced along a...

Markets have been generally quiet at the start of September but energy is again becoming an issue for equity and credit markets. Oil prices have risen since the start of the summer, with Brent crude having bounced along a bottom of $73...

Overview: New school term has the US top of the classSummer is officially over, but we are none the wiser regarding the direction of the economy. Or are we? Generally, the inflation backdrop continues to ease, although not fast enough for comfort...

Summer is officially over, but we are none the wiser regarding the direction of the economy. Or are we? Well, we quite likely are, but just a bit and not enough to know if next month’s equity markets will be higher or...

Overview: Growth divergence between Europe and the US widensAfter a global bond sell-off over the last few weeks that drove up bond yields they ended last week lower due to unexpectedly weak business sentiment reported through the ‘flash’ Purchasing Manager Indices (PMI)...

We don’t seem to be able to get away from writing about how bond yields have been driving equity markets due to their influence on underlying valuation dynamics. We wrote about it last week, on many occasions over the past two years,...

Overview: Bonds are backLast week was another difficult one for both equity and bond markets. As a result, the positive returns of July have mostly been erased so far in August. Overall, world markets are largely unchanged from a year ago. Many...

Both equity and bond markets have had another rather difficult week and with it August has mostly erased the positive returns of July. From the medium-term perspective, UK-listed equities are nearly back down to the level at which we started the year....

Overview: summer markets lukewarm on good newsOn the face of it, last week contained many of the positive headlines  market optimists had been waiting for, but the response to those headlines received was tepid at best. On Thursday, the US Bureau of...

On the face of it, the week contained many of the news headlines that market optimists had been waiting for: rapidly falling US inflation and a cooling jobs market. In the UK, news that four of its major high street lenders were...

Overview: Expecting the unexpectedStock and bond markets started August with something of a wobble last week. When bond yields suddenly ticked up over the week, for reasons that were not immediately obvious, equity valuations reacted with a mild correction. Only after Friday’s...

July turned out to be another good month for portfolio investors as markets rose across the board, leaving only commodities and property investors in the red for the year. For more details on the month’s returns picture, please refer to our July...