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Flipping the narrativeGlobal stocks marked time overall last week but US equities were a notable underperformer again despite a late Friday rally. AI is at the centre of the narrative but, this time, it’s not a positive. Other regions held up better:...

US tech stocks dragged down overall global equity returns this week – the Nasdaq Composite index down nearly 3% in sterling terms. The AI theme that propelled the sector for years is now causing a crisis of confidence, over a potential growth...

End of euphoria, back to normal? Equities hit all time highs early last week, but US stocks sold off after Microsoft’s earnings. A ‘normal’ sell-off based on earnings would be mildly comforting, after recent political risk sell-offs. However, there are liquidity risk signals...

Equity markets hit all-time highs on Tuesday and Wednesday, including a 1.5% gain for US stocks. But Microsoft’s earnings pushed the US back to where it started the week. The US tech giant’s spending and revenue figures reignited fears about an AI...

Weak links in the outlookTrump threatened and retreated, but markets ended slightly down last week. On the bright side, the TACO trade is protecting against the downside.  40-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) broke through 4% for the first time ever. The long-maturity...

After a roller coaster week, markets end just a bit lower than when we started. Equity indices were mixed in their own currency terms. US investors will see their markets as slightly down, but US returns will look worse for international investors,...

Are markets right to be relaxed?Markets kept up their strong start during last week, shrugging off growing political worries. This week begins with the startling escalation in “the grab for Greenland”. Both bonds and equities are under pressure and, although the US...

Markets have continued their strong and broad-based start to the year. US threats on Greenland cooled a little into the end of the week, allowing regional politics to take focus. Japan’s Prime Minister announced a snap election next month, which weakened the...

Optimism prevailsMarkets have started the year well, led by small and mid-cap stocks. US military action and threats barely moved markets – not even oil prices. Instead, investors are focused on reasonable growth data and its potential to improve.  According to JP...

Global stock markets have started the year well, with most gaining during the first two weeks. The FTSE 100 broke through the 10,000 level last Friday for the first time in its history. Encouragingly, small and mid-cap stocks have led the rally,...

A quiet break from the new normal The US actions in Venezuela have – as of now – had no negative impact on equity markets. In commodities, metals are stronger again, while oil is slightly lower. US bond markets are a bit...

We have crossed from the old to the new year with a bit of cheer. While US equity markets have marked time, Europe’s broad market has hit a new high, and the FTSE 100 traded above 10,000 this morning. China traded the...

This has been the last week of liquid trading for 2025. The return of US economic data has sharpened the view that the US and other regions have had a soft patch.  Interestingly, that clarity has helped rather than hurt markets. Investors...

Powell offers some liquid cheerStocks were mostly solid last week but tech was weak, culminating in a mild US sell off late on Friday. Oracle revealed ostensibly very strong numbers, but this wasn’t enough to beat analysts’ stretched forecasts. With the debt...

We are into the last active investment days of a truly remarkable year. After a short note on this week’s events, we offer some thoughts about 2025 and an outlook for 2026. Most equity markets have been solid this week but this...

Waiting for a Santa RallyCapital markets felt slightly better last week, with incremental gains. Underlying these moves was a genuine improvement in the outlook. Increased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut for December – a near certainty after ADP’s weaker-than-expected employment...

Capital markets felt a little better this week, but with emphasis on “a little”. Global stocks gained incrementally through the week, putting most of the November market downdraft behind them. Underlying these moves is a genuine improvement in the economic outlook for...

Markets give thanks to central banksCapital markets had a good week. Headwinds are abating and optimists see a Santa Rally building, while pessimists see only markets not going higher.  We talk more about the UK budget below, but in short, markets took...

Capital markets had a good week. Stocks and bonds gained virtually everywhere – particularly small and mid-cap companies. The most obvious rationale for this rally is a growing expectation of interest rate cuts, but we suspect this is just part of investors’...

Ripe for a rotation Last week ended with lower stock prices and a cryptocurrency sell-off – despite a bump midweek from Nvidia’s better than expected profits (and news that Warren Buffet bought into Alphabet). Deep divisions at the Fed – likely due...