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Raised tensions in the Middle East have dominated the headlines this week. Capital markets are obviously not the most humanly important consideration in this situation, but our job as investment managers is to think about how they might react. Initially, global stocks...

Global growth tailwinds For once, markets were preoccupied with non-US news last week – after China’s double shot of economic stimulus boosted Chinese (and European) stocks. Our verdict is that they will be impactful – just not quite the ‘bazooka’ levels of...

Rarely do non-US stories dominate global capital markets as much as this week. China announced a double shot of economic stimulus that surprised most – and Chinese stocks surged in response. European equities, particularly luxury goods brands, also jumped, in a hopeful...

Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030: Balancing Ambition with Economic Realities Vision 2030 is Saudi Arabia’s blueprint to develop a thriving economy and vibrant society, while importantly diversifying its income sources away from oil. This ambitious plan, however, comes at a significant cost. Since...

Central bank pivot 2.0 The US Federal Reserve’s 50 basis point interest rate cut was last week’s biggest story, and markets took it well. It was portrayed as a surprisingly large cut, but markets had already priced in a high chance of...

Central banks dominated the narrative this week. The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 50 basis point cut to interest rates was by far the biggest market news, surprising some who expected a smaller move. Investors took the news well, with the S&P 500...

Always in the headlines it seems electric cars now have to content with falling global sales. Tesla has seen deliveries drop and Ford have cut production on the much vaunted F150 lightning. Another body blow for the sector? Cost is certainly a...

Market fears fading Global stocks recovered well last week, in a sign that the early September jitters are fading, just as the August ones did. Not because the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates again – given president Lagarde warned that...

Capital markets picked themselves up this week. Global stocks are up, recovering well from a tough start to September. At the time of writing, not all of last week’s losses have been recovered, but markets seem to breathe a sigh of relief....

Creditor-on-Creditor Violence The surge in “liability management exercises” (LMEs) — where companies manipulate their creditor dynamics to extract concessions — has intensified, with a staggering $155 billion of debt hanging in the balance. This post-Covid default cycle is unique. It’s driven primarily...

The latest Eurostat publication suggests that package holiday prices in Europe, have increased year on year in July by 6.6%. Prices have been trending upwards since late 2021 but this year increases have been slowing, with international travel seeing more modest increases...

Nervous markets ahead of second pivotCapital markets started September nervously, but our generally positive long-term view remains unchanged. China’s weakness continues to weigh on global growth: its corporate profit outlook worsened, as did demand for iron and steel. Beijing’s main support lever...

Capital markets have started September rather despondently. It feels similar to (though not nearly as bad as) the sell-off that started in August, after which stock values quickly recovered. There were risks and headwinds back then, but nothing that significantly dampened the...

Balancing acts US stocks were weighed by tech last week, but the UK and Europe were reasonable. Britons suspect a capital gains tax (CGT) hike in autumn – which is keeping advisers busy but hasn’t had any effect on UK stocks, and...

It was a flat week for global stock values, but with a fair amount of dispersion. US returns were once again weighed down by tech, but the UK and Europe are up over 1% at the time of writing. The overall sluggish...

Pakistan’s Balancing Act: High Stakes of Government Debt for Banks Pakistan’s banks are walking a tightrope, with an alarming proportion of their assets tied to government debt. Estimates suggest a staggering 50-60% exposure, dwarfing the global average. This compares to less than...

Late summer heatwave Global stocks have turned things around from the early August sell-off. Up until the end of last week, the gains of the recovery were strong and remarkably stable. Last week’s main capital markets event was Federal Reserve chair Jerome...

Global stocks continued their climb higher until the latter part of this week. The rise up until Wednesday had shown remarkably steady gains in daily terms. When you put that together with gains over the last few weeks, equity returns have been...

AI Growth = Pending Energy Crisis? The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) is fuelling unprecedented investment, but it’s also creating a potential energy crisis. Training and operating AI models requires an enormous amount of computational power, leading to substantial energy consumption....

Tornado rather than hurricane The market storm looked like it would become a hurricane in early August, but it ended as fast as whirlwind: stocks climbed last week without hesitation. Positivity is good, but a little unnerving. Our medium-term outlook is bright,...