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Bond market woes took centre stage again this week. Much of this was driven by the strength of the US economy, as shown by today’s strong employment data and signs that US consumer services are powering ahead (although, interestingly, wages rises were...

December’s market-moving events – most notably the Fed telling markets ‘bah humbug’ – didn’t spoil 2024’s year-long party in US equities; they just stopped it a little early. Investors have grown extremely confident about US growth since Trump’s election win, expecting tax...

We start this year with a condensed Tatton Weekly, sharing with you a few thoughts about some relevant events over the holiday period and the first few days of 2025. Next week, we will be back to the usual extensive format, bringing...

Fed spoils the Christmas partyInvestors weren’t expecting the Federal Reserve’s hawkish forward guidance adjustment (fewer interest rate cuts to be expected in 2025) and sold off sharply on the news. That is a big change from last year’s unstoppable ‘Santa Rally’, but...

Not only did the ‘Santa Rally’ not arrive this year, but global stocks had a notable sell-off on Wednesday night. This came after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) told investors not to expect many interest rate cuts in 2025, a pretty stark...

The Tatton Outlook 2025 – Overview Donald Trump is the ‘known unknown’ for 2025, and the range of possible market outcomes is wide. Markets are predicting US outperformance, thanks to pro-growth domestic policies and anti-global trade policies. Economists are less certain. ‘America...

Capital markets were choppy this week, unsurprisingly. At the end of a very strong year in stock markets, investors typically rebalance their holdings and take profits, so mild selling pressures are to be expected. This absence of a Santa Rally should not...

Focus turns to Europe Global equity markets gained about 1% but, despite Europe’s political turbulence, both French and German equity markets are beating most of the rest; Sterling has gained against most currencies. Bonds marked time ahead of central bank rate decisions...

November was a month to remember in terms of news and, for the US especially, one which was positive for economic and market optimism. We cover asset class performance in our usual monthly market review in an article below. This week, global...

Equities and bonds go separate ways Markets tend to be quiet on the USA’s thanksgiving but, beforehand, trading was a little frenetic last week. French politics hurt its stocks, while Trump tariffs hurt emerging markets. Japanese stocks were volatile – and moved...

Global financial markets appreciate the USA’s Thanksgiving holiday, which tends to be the quietest of its unique holidays. Markets can be frenetic in the lead up though, as it proved this week. Although developed market equities were calm in sterling terms, stocks...

More and more loose ends As we formulate our 2025 market outlook, the medium-term scenario looks increasingly littered with new variables. Cracks are appearing in the ‘Trump trade’ for US stocks. Investors hoped Trump II would pick a consistent, business-friendly cabinet, but...

We are getting to that time of year when investment houses like us write their annual market outlooks. That is easier to do if the loose threads wrap themselves up before Christmas, but right now the opposite is happening. Uncertainty is growing,...

Reading Trump’s tea leaves Stocks were up and down last week. Investors bought into Donald Trump’s tax cut and deregulation agenda, then soured on Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell’s suggestion that interest rate cuts might be gradual. It was hoped that Trump...

It was an up and down week for global stocks. Markets initially showed confidence in Donald Trump’s tax cut and deregulation agenda – but pulled back when Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell suggested interest rate cuts might have to be gradual. The...

Known winner, unknown outcomes We expect some risks but potentially higher rewards for US assets under a second Trump term. Markets are clearly excited, but some of the equity rally was about pent-up demand – as investors had de-risked ahead of an...

For the sake of investors, we hoped for a quickly resolved US election, and we got one. Capital markets responded well to Donald Trump’s surprisingly decisive win, with US stocks rallying from Wednesday on. Investors deemed it good news for the US,...

US, not UK, battening down the hatches The budget dominated headlines, but global investors were again preoccupied with US politics. We said that volatility could spike amid tense markers, and that’s exactly what happened. It could continue until the US election outcome...

Rachel Reeves’ autumn budget dominated the UK news this week, but global investors were yet again preoccupied with the US election. Both created market jitters for UK investors, culminating in a noticeable fall in global stock prices on Thursday. We wrote last...

Markets in brace position Markets are bracing for some big upcoming events: the UK autumn budget, and a knife-edge US presidential election. Trading volumes could fall as a result, causing volatility, but that shouldn’t detract from the positive long-term outlook. The Chancellor,...