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Reasons to believeOperation Epic Fury is over and markets are betting that the Strait of Hormuz will be open soon. Both stocks and bonds bumped up; equities helped by strong corporate earnings especially in the US; bonds benefitting from lower inflation expectations...

Markets are feeling hopeful. Iran is still mulling over Donald Trump’s proposal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but investors are betting on a done deal. Oil prices dropped from around $115 per barrel [pb] on Monday to...

Markets making the best of it Oil prices spiked back above $120pb last week and have remained close to that level as the US-Iran ceasefire frays. But the equity market casualties have been UK and European stocks, while the US has gained....

The risks we wrote about last week keep rising. The continued US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, along with reports that the US might restart attacks, sent oil prices above $120 per barrel in midweek trading. They have since settled down...

Resilient equity markets, rising risksRisks have risen but stocks are little changed. Middle Eastern ceasefires have been nominally extended but the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Both the US and Iran are conducting operations in the waterway – resulting in a tense...

Risks have risen compared to a week ago, but global stocks are little changed. The Middle East conflict has simmered down into a tense stalemate, with ongoing dialogue but little progress. Global equity indices are in a holding pattern, although US stocks...

Getting back on trackLast week ended with what can only be described as market euphoria, after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open”. Markets effectively decided the war to be over (even before Iran’s declaration), with the exception of oil perhaps:...

As we were writing, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open” and markets rose sharply. This time, bond yields fell back too. Even before that announcement, equity markets had, more or less, decided that the war is over – thanks to...

Brief relief Markets burst up on the ceasefire news but that optimism, yet again, has had to be tempered. The Strait of Hormuz now are not only closed but “blockaded, perhaps a risky attempt to create more pressure on China to press...

Markets burst upwards on Wednesday, as the US pulled back from the precipice and announced a ceasefire with Iran. Oil prices dropped over 15% while bonds and stock prices rallied on the hope that global supply chains might quickly return to normal....

A seasonal central bank pivot We start April, and the new quarter, still very much dealing with the consequences of March. Both equity and bond prices are better since the close on the last Friday in March. Perhaps surprisingly given that the spot...

We start April, and the new quarter, still very much dealing with the consequences of March. Both equity and bond indices’ prices are better since last Friday’s close as we write but the narrative is as febrile as at any point since...

Markets hold their breath Donald Trump’s ‘peace plan’ for Iran and the negotiations via Pakistan gave markets a smidgen of positivity. TACO traders were not surprised that Washington postponed last weekend’s ultimatum (reopen the Strait of Hormuz or see energy infrastructure destroyed)...

Donald Trump’s apparent olive branch to Iran helped to temporarily stabilise markets this week. Stock prices gained a little in the early part of the week, government bond yields fell back from recent highs, and energy prices dropped back from last Friday’s...

Escalation precedes de-escalationThe marked escalation in the Iran conflict, which began with Israeli-US strikes against the Iranian Pars gas field followed by reprisals against Qatari gas sites and other neighbours’ key oil producing assets, has now become even hotter. This weekend has...

The Iran War keeps dragging down markets. Israel’s strike on Iran’s South Pars gas facility, followed by Iran’s strike on a Qatari liquified natural gas facility – the largest in the world – saw crude oil spike above $115 per barrel and...

Capital markets’ fragile optimismStocks pulled back into the end of last week but, given war escalation and oil prices breaking above $100pb, equities still look surprisingly sanguine. That continues to be the case as we open this week’s trading, with spot Brent...

Stock markets pulled back over the last couple of days, as oil prices rose to around $100 per barrel (pb). Before that, equities had been holding up okay, particularly large cap stocks. Sterling has slipped about 0.5% against the US Dollar which...

Known Unknown returnsThe Iran war has plunged markets into uncertainty with spot Brent crude oil above $105 per barrel (and having touched $120 pb) and European natural gas prices now more than doubled. European and Asian stocks have been hit harder than...

The US and Israel’s war against Iran has plunged capital markets into uncertainty. No one knows how long it will last, what the endgame is or how much the global economy will be disrupted along the way. Markets are famously ignorant of...