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Faster change, stronger growth, bigger risksStocks climbed last week, yet again hitting various new highs although, again ending with a sense of anticlimax. The narratives didn’t change. UK markets did well across the board, reflecting an improving economy. The US Federal Reserve cut...

Note: Readers last week might have been confused by the ‘AI generated content might be incorrect’ sentence instead of, or after, the chart. This was an error and was, ironically, inserted by embedded AI in our email software. We are sorry for...

Autumn but no fall Markets ended last week with all-time highs, but investors remain uneasily positive. We have noticed a disconnect between people’s pessimism and recently strong investment returns. With global inflation coming down business confidence better than expected, the outlook is...

Capital markets started the week calmer than they have been, and are ending with yet more all-time-highs. However, investors remain uneasily positive. The mid-week saw more wobbles, and this patch of increased volatility could continue – thanks to tariffs, credit troubles and...

Bounce and braceGlobal risk assets finally ended with a bounce last week, with portfolios still closer to where they were at the beginning of October than the highs touched before Trump’s 100% tariff threat on China. The pull-back has been healthy, considering...

Global risk assets sagged this week. Initially, stocks bounced a little from last Friday’s US sell-off, after Trump appeared to do a customary TACO turn on Sunday. But, investment portfolios are now closer to where we started October than where there got...

Volatility on the horizonStocks were pushing all-time highs early last week, but sold off sharply after Trump’s tariff threats against China. At the open in Asian markets there was further selling but this lasted only minutes. From thereon there was healthy “dip...

Stock markets keep pushing at all-time highs earlier this week, but with less enthusiasm than a few weeks ago. Then, late on Friday, a renewed Trump tariff threat against China’s rare earth export restrictions was enough to immediately send markets down 2%....

Nothing shuts down the stock marketsGlobal stocks bumped up last week, despite the US government shutdown. Perhaps markets expect a resolution, or perhaps only a mild economic impact. When US government shutdowns are short, they rarely hurt the economy too much. The...

Global stocks bumped up this week, recovering all of last week’s losses and then some. That is despite a US government shutdown that shows no sign of being quickly resolved. Previous funding gaps have hurt the world’s largest economy, but markets are...

Global stock prices have dropped this week, with most regional markets ending down. Some of this is end-of-quarter rebalancing of institutional portfolios. Institutional investors typically adjust their portfolios back to the original risk weights, a process which is equivalent to taking profits...

Running out of steam Last week’s mild equity falls were probably about end-of-quarter rebalancing. After a strong rally in the last three months, there’s some inevitable profit-taking at the end of September. But we shouldn’t get complacent: there are some narrative shifts...

One of the key debates in ESG investing is about engagement versus avoidance. Should you only buy good companies, or should you buy bad ones and make them better? It depends on your perspective, and why you incorporate ESG principles in the...

Slowdown? What Slowdown?The weekend’s domestic and international political events continue to be a source of risk but Monday’s markets continue close to Friday’s closing levels. Last week saw rate cuts but higher longer bond yields, and record highs for some equity markets....

Rate cuts and record highs for markets this week. As wholly expected, the US Federal Reserve voted to decrease interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to 4% (the effective rate is about 4.1%), and signalled further cuts before the year end. The...

Markets’ outlook preference turns positive It was a slightly confusing week. US 30-year government bond yields dropped sharply – suggesting weaker growth expectations – but small cap stocks had a strong week, suggesting the opposite. In a sense, both narratives are true....

It has been another slightly confusing week for some investors. Markets mulled over last Friday’s weaker than expected US jobs report, but stocks kept climbing higher virtually everywhere. There were two big market action stories: a sizable fall in long-term government bond...

Pause for thoughtWhen traders return from their summer holidays, they reassess their outlooks, but while there’s no shortage in narratives, stocks moved very little last week.  Long-term bond yields continued rising on Monday and Tuesday – fuelling more panic about inflation and debt...

The ‘Back to School’ week often gets a lot of attention. Traders return from their holidays and reassess their market outlooks. So, after the summer’s strong equity rally, it is no surprise that investors are doing a bit of soul searching. There...

Refuelling pause in marketsIt was another quiet week for markets. Nvidia’s Q2 earnings were expected to give some clues about the AI investment theme, but US markets didn’t react much. Nvidia shares themselves fell, despite the chipmaker exceeding its high expectations. There’s...