Library

Improving mood versus slowing growth Capital markets bounced last week, supposedly because of Trump backing down on Chinese tariffs and Federal Reserve independence. We should be careful about these rationalisations. Greater liquidity led to a better mood in stocks and bonds, and...

Capital markets bounced this week and the mood notably improved. Media commentary put this down to Donald Trump’s softer rhetoric on Chinese tariffs, and his affirmation of the US central bank’s (the Federal Reserve’s) independence. Equities and bonds were positively impacted, not...

Volatility drops but uncertainty remains Markets were calmer last week but there was no strong rebound. Falling government bond yields were welcome, after the previous week’s spike in US treasury yields. It now looks like markets once again see tariffs primarily as...

We head into the long Easter weekend with calmer markets than a week ago – but without any strong rebound. Time off from the tariff drama has helped the mood and eased last week’s liquidity concerns, but there still is not much...

Ceasefire, not truce, in global trade war Last week had eye-watering ups and downs. US bond yields spiked, prompting Donald Trump to pause his “reciprocal” tariffs for 90 days on all countries except China, which faces a whopping 145% – although somewhat...

After a week of eye-watering ups and downs, stock markets are roughly where they started but still well below where they were before Trump’s April 2nd ‘Liberation Day’. For bond holders, it has been equally volatile but prices are more than slightly...

Trump’s Liberation Day turns into market routDonald Trump’s tariffs upset markets unprepared for their magnitude. The shockingly high “reciprocal” tariffs aren’t a response to “Tariffs charged to the U.S.A” as claimed, but a calculation based on regional trade deficits. This widely panned...

Donald Trump’s tariffs upset markets, which were unprepared for their magnitude. The US imposed a 10% tariff on most imports, and additional “reciprocal” tariffs on major trading partners. Unsurprisingly, this was followed by China’s 34% retaliatory tariff this morning. Global stocks sold...

Tariff ‘stick’ to be followed by fiscal ‘carrot’?Markets have been fluctuating, initially with some positivity due to Trump’s planned phased and toned down tariff “Liberation Day” announcement. However, Trump’s unexpected permanent 25% tariffs on autos and threats of further tariffs swiftly reversed...

As most of us are aware, markets have recently been taking one step forward, one step back and this week was no different. Equity markets started with a bit of positivity amid talk that Trump’s April 2nd tariff “Liberation Day” was going...

Bracing for tariff “Liberation Day” Capital markets were calmer last week. We said before that US investor sentiment had swung too far and could bounce back – and so it proved. This was helped by the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady...

Capital markets were calmer for most of the week, with a little turbulence into the end. Up until Thursday close, stock prices moved higher and measures of intraday volatility fell somewhat, largely thanks to fewer signs of policy upheaval from the US...

Just another growth scare, or more?The stock market sell-off has resumed and US equities are officially in correction (-10%). US inflation was lower than expected, which usually pushes down bond yields, but the opposite happened – demonstrating that capital is flowing out...

Following the pause last week, the stock market sell-off unfortunately resumed this week. Global government bonds unhelpfully joined the downdraft as bond yields edged up. Equity markets are generally only slightly lower in Sterling terms but, for the third week in a...

The return of regional divergence US stocks fell once again last week, while European and Chinese shares did well. The background to this was a spike in European bond yields and more political uncertainty from the Trump administration. European stocks jumped on...

At the time of writing, global stocks in aggregate are around where they were a week ago in local currency terms, but the fall in the US Dollar means the Bloomberg World index is about -3% in Sterling terms. Once again, the...

Honeymoon ends early No meaningful recovery for US stocks last week – but a slight warming for European shares. Encouragingly, Keir Starmer’s charm offensive resulted in President Trump saying “tariffs wouldn’t be necessary” for the UK – but Emmanuel Macron’s earlier experience...

There was no meaningful recovery for US stocks this week, following their cold shower last Friday. By contrast, Europe actually managed to warm a little through this week. Investors’ shift away from the US continues, and markets are no longer enamoured by...

Global politics turn businessCapital markets ended last week on a slightly downbeat note. That was more about the US economy than its astounding shift in foreign policy – but here everyone is focussed on Donald Trump’s recasting of Russia as an ally...

We end the week on a slightly downbeat note, not borne out of the astounding shifts in US foreign policy, but because US domestic service sector sentiment seems to have sagged. The US 10-year bond yield has dropped back to below 4.5%...